washington democratic caucus

Democratic Forecasts: Alaska, Hawaii, and Washington

Our model correctly predicted each of the 3/22 contests and is now 28/29 for the “season.”  Below we show our forecasts for the Democratic caucuses in Alaska, Hawaii, and Washington:


Hillary Clinton Win Probability

Bernie Sanders Win Probability


Below is our prediction for caucus vote shares.  The model explains 96 percent of the variation between vote shares, so it is not perfect, but still highly predictive.  These numbers will not be perfect and will likely miss actual shares by 2-5 percentage points.  However, they provide strong vote share estimates and yield important delegate targets for each state.


Hillary Clinton Vote Share

Bernie Sanders Vote Share


Which leads us to delegate targets for the day:


Clinton Delegate Target

Sanders Delegate Target





Clinton should hope to win 42 delegates and Sanders 100.  Any numbers above/below these estimates would prove to be a good/bad day for the candidates.  Sanders is down around 300 pledged delegates – netting 58 over Clinton would close that gap and bring him some needed momentum as the map moves to his stronger states.  (Of course, netting 58 delegates does not put him in the lead and does not climb him out of his delegate hole – it simply moves him ever so slightly closer to Clinton.  Sanders needs to perform well continuously and win large states, not just small ones like Idaho and Utah).

Saturday looks to be strong for Sanders.  We’ll see how the day unfolds.

2 thoughts on “Democratic Forecasts: Alaska, Hawaii, and Washington

  1. Sanders has been in politics for 20+ yrs. He knows that in order to get 1/5 of the things he’s promising done that the congress, senate, and the supreme court would have to be majority dem/liberal. Is that really going to happen this year? No. He isn’t being honest and with 20+ yrs in politics, he knows this. Plus he never says how he plans to bring his promises about. He just keeps making promises, telling people what they want to hear. I’m not voting for Sanders. I’ll vote 3rd party first.

    1. You are absolutely 100% correct… Unfortunately his supporters are not the kind of people who see things as they really are, but as they’d like to believe it could be… He’s the same sort of “illusion creator” as Trump, only not a facist or bigot… His “revolution” is a pipe dream and the media love to let it slide because they never ask him that center question about THE REALITY…

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