|State||Hillary Clinton Win Probability||Bernie Sanders Win Probability|
Below is our prediction for caucus vote shares. The model explains 96 percent of the variation between vote shares, so it is not perfect, but still highly predictive. These numbers will not be perfect and will likely miss actual shares by 2-5 percentage points. However, they provide strong vote share estimates and yield important delegate targets for each state.
|State||Hillary Clinton Vote Share||Bernie Sanders Vote Share|
Which leads us to delegate targets for the day:
|State||Clinton Delegate Target||Sanders Delegate Target|
Clinton should hope to win 42 delegates and Sanders 100. Any numbers above/below these estimates would prove to be a good/bad day for the candidates. Sanders is down around 300 pledged delegates – netting 58 over Clinton would close that gap and bring him some needed momentum as the map moves to his stronger states. (Of course, netting 58 delegates does not put him in the lead and does not climb him out of his delegate hole – it simply moves him ever so slightly closer to Clinton. Sanders needs to perform well continuously and win large states, not just small ones like Idaho and Utah).
Saturday looks to be strong for Sanders. We’ll see how the day unfolds.