North Carolina Early Voting

Voter registration statistics
WhiteBlackHispanicOtherUnknown
Registered Voters (10/24/2016) 4,761,412 1,520,330 162,123 498,111 –
Percent of Electorate70%22%2%7%0%
Current polling average among select demographic breakdowns
TrumpClintonTrumpClintonTrumpClinton
White0.550.35Dem0.120.835Male0.470.405
Black0.120.82Rep0.8250.07Female0.380.475
HispanicInd0.390.345
Other
Current turnout and electorate composition by race.  I combine this with polling averages to estimate Trump and Clinton vote shares.  “Other” and “unknown” provide challenges.
WhiteBlackHispanicOtherUnknownTrumpClinton
2016 Turnout (of total Registered Voters by Race)46%45%36%21%84774/? 1,184,524 1,225,631
2016 Percent of Electorate70%22%2%3%3% 2,577,788 2,637,123
Same as above, but by sex.
MenWomenTrumpClinton
2016 Turnout43%47% 1,272,421 1,350,458
2016 Percent of Electorate42%56% 2,803,917 2,975,940
By party.
DemRepInd Trump Clinton
2016 Turnout48%48%40% 1,286,981 1,429,527
2016 Percent of Electorate42%32%26% 2,836,899 3,148,374
Averaging the approximated vote shares by demographics yields this approximated early vote tally.
TrumpClinton
Estimated Early Votes (Average of Above Breakdowns) 1,247,975 1,335,205
If current turnout remains the same through election day, we might see these final results.
TrumpClinton
If this pattern holds, estimated final vote tally 2,739,535 2,920,479
Compare to 2012.
2012 Early Votes (Estimates)
Obama 1,394,66150.58%
Romney 1,336,04348.45%
What percent of the 2012 early vote does each candidate have?
TrumpClinton
Percent of 2012 Early Vote93%96%
Who’s leading the early vote?
TrumpClinton
Share of Early Vote40.22%43.03%
Likely due to relative third-party popularity, both candidate’s early vote percentage is running behind their predecessor’s.
TrumpClinton
Points Ahead/Behind 2012 Early Vote Share-8.23%-7.55%

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *