Arizona Early Voting

DemRepIndTotal
Registered Voters (10/24/2016) 1,019,050 1,185,023 1,164,373 3,400,611
Percent of Electorate29.97%34.85%34.24%
Current polling average among select demographic breakdowns
TrumpClinton
Dem3.00%96.00%
Rep90.00%6.00%
Ind44.00%39.00%
Current turnout and electorate composition by party.  Combined with polling averages, early vote tallies are estimated as well as a final vote tally (that assumes an impossible 100% voter turnout) if the electorate’s composition does not change.
DemRepInd Trump Clinton
2016 Turnout52.62%53.83%33.62% 762,187 705,363
2016 Percent of Electorate33.70%40.10%24.60% 1,629,743 1,508,239
Averaging the approximated vote shares by demographics yields this approximated early vote tally.
TrumpClinton
Estimated Early Votes 762,187 705,363
If current turnout remains the same through election day, we might see these final results.
TrumpClinton
If this patter holds, estimated final vote tally 1,629,743 1,508,239
Compare to 2012.
2012 Early Votes (Estimates)
Obama 476,60047.66%
Romney 508,80050.88%
What percent of the 2012 early vote does each candidate have?
TrumpClinton
Percent of 2012 Early Vote149.8%148.0%
Who’s leading the early vote?
TrumpClinton
Share of Early Vote47.93%44.35%
Likely due to relative third-party popularity, both candidate’s early vote percentage is running behind their predecessor’s.
TrumpClinton
Points Ahead/Behind 2012 Early Vote Share-2.96%-3.31%

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