2018 midterm election predictions

2018 Midterm Election Predictions

House of Representatives

Democrats: 95.3% chance of majority; 232 seats
Republicans: 4.7% chance of majority; 213 seats

Senate

Republicans: 75.0% chance of majority; 51 seats
Democrats: 25.0% chance of majority; 49 seats

House Popular Vote

Democrats: 56.11%
Republicans: 43.89%

House of Representatives

A Democratic Majority

Our 2018 House Predictions show the Democrats have a 95.3% chance of winning the House.

PoliticalEdu's 2018 midterm predictions present three models for the House of Representatives, each assuming different levels of gerrymandering.  

The first model assumes Democrats need to win the House popular vote by 8.5 points to be considered even money for the House majority.  In 2016, the decisive House district favored the Republican Party by 5.5 points -- model two uses that as the popular vote margin by which Democrats need to win to have a 50 percent chance of winning the House. 

Lastly, we create a 2018 House prediction that assumes no gerrymandering effect outside of that baked into previous elections.

2018 midterm election predictions



2018 midterm election forecast



2018 midterm election

Senate

A Republican Majority

Our 2018 Senate election predictions give Republicans a 75% chance of retaining their majority.

Democrats are forecasted to pickup Nevada from Dean Heller and hold onto to all seats in which an incumbent's running.

2018 midterm election predictions senate



House Popular Vote

The generic Congress poll has long been a leading indicator of success in the midterm elections (even with gerrymandering).  Our generic Congress poll tracker currently gives Democrats a 12 point advantage -- and it's growing.

generic congress poll



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