2018 Midterm Election Predictions

2018 Midterm Election Predictions

House of Representatives

House Seat Forecast

House seat predictions
The heavy line shows the mean prediction with shaded areas showing the 95 percent confidence interval based on the model’s standard deviation. (Click for higher quality.)

Our 2018 midterm election predictions show a Democratic majority in the House of Representatives.  This prediction comes the Democrats’ large lead in generic congressional polls, a leading indicator of midterm election successes.

In fact, Democrats stand to gain a large majority in the House, perhaps netting as many as 50 seats.

Democratic Seat Distribution

2018 midterm election predictions
Likelihood of Democrats winning a given number of House seats in 2018. (Click for higher quality.)

More information here.

Generic Vote Forecasting

generic vote 2018
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generic congress polls
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