Iowa Early Voting

Dem Rep Ind Total
Registered Voters (10/24/2016)  618,785  652,545  678,893  2,144,075
Percent of Electorate 28.86% 30.43% 31.66%
Current polling average among select demographic breakdowns
Trump Clinton
Dem 5.00% 83.00%
Rep 86.00% 4.00%
Ind 38.00% 33.00%
Current turnout and electorate composition by party.  Combined with polling averages, early vote tallies are estimated as well as a final vote tally (that assumes an impossible 100% voter turnout) if the electorate’s composition does not change.
Dem Rep Ind  Trump  Clinton
2016 Turnout 40.04% 32.17% 20.28%  241,793  259,536
2016 Percent of Electorate 41.80% 34.70% 23.20%  873,668  937,776
Averaging the approximated vote shares by demographics yields this approximated early vote tally.
Trump Clinton
Estimated Early Votes  241,793  259,536
If current turnout remains the same through election day, we might see these final results.
Trump Clinton
If this patter holds, estimated final vote tally  873,668  937,776
Compare to 2012.
2012 Early Votes (Estimates)
Obama  379,642 56.40%
Romney  283,634 42.14%
What percent of the 2012 early vote does each candidate have?
Trump Clinton
Percent of 2012 Early Vote 85.2% 68.4%
Who’s leading the early vote?
Trump Clinton
Share of Early Vote 40.75% 43.74%
Likely due to relative third-party popularity, both candidate’s early vote percentage is running behind their predecessor’s.
Trump Clinton
Points Ahead/Behind 2012 Early Vote Share -1.39% -12.66%

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