Iowa Early Voting

DemRepIndTotal
Registered Voters (10/24/2016) 618,785 652,545 678,893 2,144,075
Percent of Electorate28.86%30.43%31.66%
Current polling average among select demographic breakdowns
TrumpClinton
Dem5.00%83.00%
Rep86.00%4.00%
Ind38.00%33.00%
Current turnout and electorate composition by party.  Combined with polling averages, early vote tallies are estimated as well as a final vote tally (that assumes an impossible 100% voter turnout) if the electorate’s composition does not change.
DemRepInd Trump Clinton
2016 Turnout40.04%32.17%20.28% 241,793 259,536
2016 Percent of Electorate41.80%34.70%23.20% 873,668 937,776
Averaging the approximated vote shares by demographics yields this approximated early vote tally.
TrumpClinton
Estimated Early Votes 241,793 259,536
If current turnout remains the same through election day, we might see these final results.
TrumpClinton
If this patter holds, estimated final vote tally 873,668 937,776
Compare to 2012.
2012 Early Votes (Estimates)
Obama 379,64256.40%
Romney 283,63442.14%
What percent of the 2012 early vote does each candidate have?
TrumpClinton
Percent of 2012 Early Vote85.2%68.4%
Who’s leading the early vote?
TrumpClinton
Share of Early Vote40.75%43.74%
Likely due to relative third-party popularity, both candidate’s early vote percentage is running behind their predecessor’s.
TrumpClinton
Points Ahead/Behind 2012 Early Vote Share-1.39%-12.66%

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