virginia governor's election predictions

Virginia Governor’s Election Prediction

Northam: 51.1% of the vote; 62% chance of victory

Gillespie: 48.9% of the vote; 38% chance of victory

On November, Virginians head to the polls to elect a new governor.  The contest pits former Republican National Committee chairman Ed Gillespie against current Lieutenant Governor Ralph Northam.  With polls divergent and a public restless to extrapolate from a single race Trump’s drag — or lack thereof — on the GOP, especially in a swingy state, and its potential ramifications for next year’s midterm elections, the Virginia governor’s race comes with excitement and anxiety.

This model ignores statewide polling and instead combines past electoral data, county demographics, and the generic congress poll to predict vote shares by each Virginia locality (bootstrapping data and simulating the election 13,000 times).  It then multiples the vote share by the expected votes cast in each locality (a linear extrapolation from the past five governor elections) to predict an overall winner.

PoliticalEdu’s Virginia governor’s election prediction shows Ralph Northam ever so slightly edging out Ed Gillespie 51.1% to 48.9%.  This translates to Northam having a 62% chance of victory and Gillespie a 38% chance.

The table below shows the Virginia governor’s election predictions by locality.  This serves as a baseline against which results can be compared to see how candidates fare as localities report their votes.

LocalityNortham ForecastGillespie Forecast
Accomack County43.36%56.64%
Albemarle County61.64%38.36%
Alexandria city79.07%20.93%
Alleghany County41.16%58.84%
Amelia County30.81%69.19%
Amherst County34.50%65.50%
Appomattox County25.95%74.05%
Arlington County81.61%18.39%
Augusta County24.31%75.69%
Bath County39.79%60.21%
Bedford County24.74%75.26%
Bland County17.65%82.35%
Botetourt County27.08%72.92%
Bristol city28.95%71.05%
Brunswick County58.19%41.81%
Buchanan County25.53%74.47%
Buckingham County43.02%56.98%
Buena Vista city33.87%66.13%
Campbell County24.73%75.27%
Caroline County46.26%53.74%
Carroll County23.07%76.93%
Charles City County62.31%37.69%
Charlotte County37.58%62.42%
Charlottesville city85.78%14.22%
Chesapeake city47.61%52.39%
Chesterfield County44.97%55.03%
Clarke County40.41%59.59%
Colonial Heights city26.24%73.76%
Covington city49.16%50.84%
Craig County24.38%75.62%
Culpeper County35.97%64.03%
Cumberland County41.33%58.67%
Danville city56.13%43.87%
Dickenson County28.71%71.29%
Dinwiddie County43.07%56.93%
Emporia city62.46%37.54%
Essex County46.34%53.66%
Fairfax County66.59%33.41%
Fairfax city62.24%37.76%
Falls Church city81.93%18.07%
Fauquier County36.99%63.01%
Floyd County33.82%66.18%
Fluvanna County44.64%55.36%
Franklin County27.38%72.62%
Franklin city66.08%33.92%
Frederick County30.74%69.26%
Fredericksburg city61.59%38.41%
Galax city33.14%66.86%
Giles County29.70%70.30%
Gloucester County29.37%70.63%
Goochland County36.01%63.99%
Grayson County24.03%75.97%
Greene County32.25%67.75%
Greensville County58.67%41.33%
Halifax County41.43%58.57%
Hampton city67.37%32.63%
Hanover County31.28%68.72%
Harrisonburg city57.74%42.26%
Henrico County56.50%43.50%
Henry County35.76%64.24%
Highland County34.56%65.44%
Hopewell city49.33%50.67%
Isle of Wight County38.90%61.10%
James City County45.16%54.84%
King and Queen County42.63%57.37%
King George County34.47%65.53%
King William County31.05%68.95%
Lancaster County43.64%56.36%
Lee County21.24%78.76%
Lexington city67.39%32.61%
Loudoun County55.54%44.46%
Louisa County37.26%62.74%
Lunenburg County40.46%59.54%
Lynchburg city42.01%57.99%
Madison County34.39%65.61%
Manassas city52.95%47.05%
Manassas Park city58.46%41.54%
Martinsville city59.68%40.32%
Mathews County31.76%68.24%
Mecklenburg County40.56%59.44%
Middlesex County35.82%64.18%
Montgomery County50.99%49.01%
Nelson County49.11%50.89%
New Kent County29.12%70.88%
Newport News city60.54%39.46%
Norfolk city69.98%30.02%
Northampton County54.00%46.00%
Northumberland County40.04%59.96%
Norton city32.71%67.29%
Nottoway County43.32%56.68%
Orange County36.55%63.45%
Page County28.06%71.94%
Patrick County25.13%74.87%
Petersburg city89.38%10.62%
Pittsylvania County29.83%70.17%
Poquoson city23.96%76.04%
Portsmouth city67.40%32.60%
Powhatan County23.81%76.19%
Prince Edward County52.71%47.29%
Prince George County38.12%61.88%
Prince William County56.54%43.46%
Pulaski County31.67%68.33%
Radford city51.68%48.32%
Rappahannock County44.45%55.55%
Richmond County35.44%64.56%
Richmond city80.91%19.09%
Roanoke County33.99%66.01%
Roanoke city60.79%39.21%
Rockbridge County38.43%61.57%
Rockingham County25.39%74.61%
Russell County26.21%73.79%
Salem city37.29%62.71%
Scott County18.32%81.68%
Shenandoah County27.94%72.06%
Smyth County24.58%75.42%
Southampton County42.02%57.98%
Spotsylvania County39.24%60.76%
Stafford County42.85%57.15%
Staunton city49.86%50.14%
Suffolk city54.11%45.89%
Surry County56.78%43.22%
Sussex County56.28%43.72%
Tazewell County19.99%80.01%
Virginia Beach city46.19%53.81%
Warren County32.41%67.59%
Washington County24.56%75.44%
Waynesboro city40.94%59.06%
Westmoreland County46.89%53.11%
Williamsburg city70.87%29.13%
Winchester city49.94%50.06%
Wise County22.94%77.06%
Wythe County24.18%75.82%
York County38.90%61.10%